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Texas’s Underdog Democrats Seek to Buck a Grim National Outlook

(Bloomberg) -- Texas Democrats are getting a lift from voters passionate about gun control and abortion rights, but the goal of winning state races is hampered by what is shaping up to be one of the worst years ever for the party nationally.

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As Lone Star Democrats gather for their state convention in Dallas this week, officials are trying to rally the base on promises to stiffen rules on firearms purchases, support women and shore up the electric grid. Those issues are top-of-mind for liberals, but with so many Texans focused on roaring inflation and a looming recession, issues they largely blame on President Joe Biden, it’ll be tough to win at the ballot box.

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Polls show gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke has narrowed the gap in recent weeks with incumbent Greg Abbott, and now trails by single-digit margins in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre and the Supreme Court’s momentous decision to end the nationwide right to abortion. Texans broadly favor increased gun control measures and disapprove of a total ban on abortion, two issues that should help Democrats in this year’s campaign.

“Given the Republicans are using this time to go so far right on issues, I think it presents an incredible opportunity for Democrats,” said Sonia Van Meter, managing partner at Stanford Campaigns, a Democratic opposition research and consulting firm in Austin. “The Republican Party of Texas in particular has, I believe, finally pushed past a point where most of their supporters thought they would ever reach.”

But the top issues for Texans this year are inflation, crime and economic growth, not abortion or gun control, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. A survey in June from the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project showed similar results.

The president’s party typically loses congressional seats in first-term midterm elections, and national prospects for Democrats are even worse this year given Biden’s low approval ratings amid the fastest inflation in four decades.

Texas Democrats may also be disadvantaged by new voting restrictions and political maps drawn to give Republicans an advantage.

Last year, Abbott signed into law a bill that restricted how and when voters could cast ballots, which opponents saw as designed to limit Democratic turnout. Texas lawmakers also redrew political maps to make it easier for Republicans to preserve their stronghold.

“These aren’t insurmountable challenges, but the Democrats have to commit to overcoming them,” said Natasha Altema, a political science professor at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley.

Altema also notes that the Republicans have a much stronger get-out-the-vote effort in Texas and have been successful in picking up seats in the heavily Hispanic areas of South Texas that Democrats had traditionally dominated. Last year, the border town of McAllen elected a Republican mayor. And in a special election to replace a retiring Democrat in June, Mayra Flores picked up a U.S. House seat for the GOP in South Texas.

With no Democrat having won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, analysts say it’s paramount for the party to commit resources to mobilizing its base and getting voters excited in order to have a shot at winning races.

“Republicans have made it as hard as possible for Democrats to win elections in Texas,” said Matthew Arnold, a consultant on Democratic campaigns across the US. “But Texas is changing. They keep having to redraw the lines to win the elections. So do I have a bunch of hope that Texas is going to flip? Yeah.”

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