Yahoo News Our 2023 Grammys predictions: Who will win (and who should)
The COVID asterisks are off (R.I.P. to those rooftops and Las Vegas parking lots), and the membership has conspicuously shifted: As of last September, the Recording Academy brought in nearly 2,000 new voters — a considerable portion of them female and nonwhite — to diversify its ranks.
That's not the only reason the Grammy Awards may need all the seats at L.A.'s Crypto.com Arena when they return Sunday on CBS at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. with three-time host Trevor Noah. For the second year in a row, the nominees for the top four categories have swelled from eight to 10 (once upon a time, a.k.a. ye olde 2017, it was five). Slated performers include Bad Bunny, Harry Styles, Mary J. Blige, Lizzo, Luke Combs, Steve Lacy, Sam Smith, and Kim Petras, and the broadcast will undoubtedly spill over its scheduled three-and-a-half-hour runtime.
That doesn't mean the Grammys don't have serious ground to make up as an institution: Ratings for the 2022 ceremony were only scarcely up from 2021's record low, coming in just under nine million viewers across multiple platforms, and several stars burned by years of questionable nods or none at all, including Drake and the Weeknd, have notably declined once again to participate or attend.
Getty Images 2023 Grammy nominees Adele, Steve Lacy, Lizzo, Bad Bunny, and Harry Styles
But will this be the year that Beyoncé's joyful, seamless disco tapestry Renaissance finally breaks her top-category curse? (It's been more than a decade since she took even one of the Big Four, a Best Song trophy in 2010 for "Single Ladies.") Can Bad Bunny eke out a historic win? Or do we all live in Harry's House now? Read on for our predictions of who will win (and who should).
Album of the Year
Carlijn Jacobs for Parkwood Entertainment Beyoncé dedicated 'Renaissance' to her gay uncle Johnny.
Adele, 30
Bad Bunny, Un Verano Sin Ti
Beyoncé, Renaissance
Brandi Carlile, In These Silent Days
Coldplay, Music of the Spheres
Harry Styles, Harry's House
Kendrick Lamar, Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers
Lizzo, Special
Mary J. Blige, Good Morning Gorgeous (Deluxe)
Who will win: It's Beyoncé's to lose. Though given her history, she still might: The artist tied for most nominations of all time (with her own husband, Jay-Z) has been up for this category five times before, and lost. Don't count out Bad Bunny's juggernaut year, or the impact of Styles' sales (and dimples).
Who should win: Let two-time Album of the Year winner Adele sing it, from her emotional 2017 acceptance speech: "I'm very humbled and very grateful and gracious, but the artist of my life is Beyoncé." Renaissance may not be the creative high point of Beyoncé's career — pour one out, once again, for Lemonade — but it is the most fully realized album on this list, and she is way past due.
Record of the Year
Gareth Cattermole/Getty Adele
ABBA, "Don't Shut Me Down"
Adele, "Easy on Me"
Beyoncé, "Break My Soul"
Brandi Carlile feat. Lucius, "You and Me on the Rock"
Doja Cat, "Woman"
Harry Styles, "As It Was"
Kendrick Lamar, "The Heart Part 5"
Lizzo, "About Damn Time"
Mary J. Blige, "Good Morning Gorgeous"
Steve Lacy, "Bad Habit"
Who will win: This is essentially a performance award, which always bodes well for Adele (who has taken this one twice before), and it favors Styles as well (whose "As It Was" spent a startling 15 weeks at No. 1). Still, Lacy's breezy bedroom melancholy could sneak in, considering his multiple nominations downstream and the demo-straddling ubiquity of "Bad Habit."
Who should win: There are few bad choices here. But Lamar has four consecutive Album of the Year nods to date plus a Pulitzer, and still no wins outside the rap category. Though the meandering, uneven Mr. Morale probably won't change that, a win for "The Heart Part 5" wouldn't be the worst consolation prize.
Song of the Year
Scott Dudelson/Getty Images Steve Lacy
Adele, "Easy on Me"
Beyoncé, "Break My Soul"
Bonnie Raitt, "Just Like That"
DJ Khaled feat. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend, and Fridayy, "God Did"
Gayle, "abcdfu"
Harry Styles, "As It Was"
Kendrick Lamar, "The Heart Part 5"
Lizzo, "About Damn Time"
Steve Lacy, "Bad Habit"
Taylor Swift, "All Too Well (10 Minute Version) (The Short Film)"
Who will win: Adele has two of these already, too (for "Rolling in the Deep" and "Hello"), but "Easy on Me," first released in October 2021, just feels old at this point. So bid high for Harry, whose charms are maximized on "Was" — plus it's arguably the commercial hit on the list. This category also marks Swift's only major nod, since Midnights belongs to 2024; the narrative around the reclamation of "All Too Well" could push her over the line, even for a 10-year-old single.
Who should win: Styles or Lacy, depending which way the Record of the Year wind blows.
Best New Artist
Bryan Steffy/Getty Images Latto
Anitta
Domi and JD Beck
Latto
Måneskin
Molly Tuttle
Muni Long
Omar Apollo
Samara Joy
Tobe Nwigwe
Wet Leg
Who will win: Chaos! This category is a clown car. Bookies are betting on Latto, who had the list's only bona fide Hot 100 smash with "Big Energy," though it seems unwise to discount Måneskin, the loony kohl-eyed Italians who have happily returned codpiece-rock excess to the red carpet.
Who should win: "Big Energy" is a great, filthy bop, but Latto's lone charting single is essentially built around Mariah Carey's secondhand samples (not that we begrudge Tom Tom Club the royalty checks), and Muni Long and Anitta have both put out multiple albums over the past decade. It would be great to see the prize go to Wet Leg, whose spiky-sweet anthems did more than anyone this year to bring fun back to indie rock (or Omar Apollo, with his Frank Ocean–adjacent quiet storms).
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Jack Antonoff
Dan Auerbach
Boi-1da
Dahi
D'Mile
Who will win: D'Mile already has an Oscar (for cowriting Judas and the Black Messiah's "I'll Fight for You"), plus two recent Grammys — one for H.E.R.'s "I Can't Breathe" and another for Silk Sonic's "Leave the Door Open" — and his star continues to rise. Though Boi-1da, with his production credits on both Renaissance and Mr. Morale, could easily (and deservedly) triangulate his way to a win.
Who should win: Antonoff took this one home this past year, mostly for his work with Swift and St. Vincent. Black Keys frontman Auerbach got his 10 years ago, though this is also his fourth nod in the category; their trophy cases are full. Let Boi-1da, who has 19 noms and just one win despite his hit-laden history (Drake, Rihanna, Kanye, Nicki, Lana del Rey) get his due.
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images BTS
ABBA, "Don't Shut Me Down"
Camila Cabello feat. Ed Sheeran, "Bam Bam"
Coldplay and BTS, "My Universe"
Post Malone and Doja Cat, "I Like You (A Happier Song)"
Sam Smith and Kim Petras, "Unholy"
Who will win: Mama mia, is it not absurd that ABBA have zero Grammys? Best Pop Duo/Group is the least high-profile of their nominations this year, but it might be the one the Academy deems fitting for them in a crowded field.
Who should win: Speaking of stars still unrewarded for their sheer cultural and commercial impact, BTS have also been patiently waiting their turn (albeit for about four fewer decades). This pleasant Coldplay slurry shouldn't really be the one to get it for them, but we can't all be choosers.
Best Pop Vocal Album
Kevin Mazur/Getty Images Harry Styles
ABBA, Voyage
Adele, 30
Coldplay, Music of the Spheres
Lizzo, Special
Harry Styles, Harry's House
Who will win: Is it Adele's or Harry's? Adele, as in everything, has the advantage, but this may be Styles' participation prize if he doesn't take one from the top three categories.
Who should win: In the strictest sense of the award — is there anyone better, literally, at pop vocals? — this one belongs to Adele, though Lizzo's joyful, high-stepping inclusion (and her known appeal to the Recording Academy) could tip her in.
Best Dance/Electronic Album
Beyoncé, Renaissance
Bonobo, Fragments
Diplo, Diplo
Odesza, The Last Goodbye
Rüfüs du Sol, Surrender
Who will win: Renaissance is the Moby-Dick here; the rest are plankton.
Who should win: Say what you will about category fraud, or at the very least confusion, but Renaissance's dance-music bona fides cannot be dismissed.
Best Rock Album
Matthew Baker/Redferns Joe Talbot of Idles
The Black Keys, Dropout Boogie
Elvis Costello & the Imposters, The Boy Named If
Idles, Crawler
Machine Gun Kelly, Mainstream Sellout
Ozzy Osbourne, Patient Number 9
Spoon, Lucifer on the Sofa
Who will win: Ferocious British post-punks Idles would be the freshest choice, Ozzy the sentimental pick, and MGK the most nakedly zeitgeisty.
Who should win: Black Keys and Costello have both had stronger years, though the latter's record is a welcome, shaggy comeback. Austin indie stalwarts Spoon have been going steady for nearly 30 years, and still found new ground to till on their generally excellent 10th album, Lucifer.
Best Alternative Music Performance
Hollie Fernando Wet Leg
Arctic Monkeys, "There'd Better Be a Mirrorball"
Big Thief, "Certainty"
Florence + the Machine, "King"
Wet Leg, "Chaise Longue"
Yeah Yeah Yeahs feat. Perfume Genius, "Spitting Off the Edge of the World"
Who will win: It's a little bit crazy that Florence is 0 for 6 on career nominations, and Arctic Monkeys 0 for 5. Still, this might be where Best New Artist nominees Wet Leg get their flowers.
Who should win: Let the best "Longue" win — though a prize for the YYYs' gorgeous, woozy duet with Perfume Genius would also be pretty great.
Best Rap Album
Jason Koerner/Getty Images Kendrick Lamar
DJ Khaled, God Did
Future, I Never Liked You
Jack Harlow, Come Home the Kids Miss You
Kendrick Lamar, Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers
Pusha T, It's Almost Dry
Who will win: This one should be a walk for Kendrick, unless Jack Harlow's Timberlake curls and Hot 100 currency mesmerize voters into making a Macklemore-level error in judgment.
Who should Win: Righting past Grammy wrongs can't be the only consideration; Pusha's Almost Dry is paranoid, ruthless, and near-perfect.
Best Country Album
Terry Wyatt/WireImage Luke Combs
Ashley McBryde, Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville
Luke Combs, Growin' Up
Maren Morris, Humble Quest
Miranda Lambert, Palomino
Willie Nelson, A Beautiful Time
Who will win: Luke Combs has been reigning CMA Entertainer of the Year for the past two running, and Growin' Up (to be followed this coming March by Gettin' Old) is a monster. Lambert and Morris are two modern-Nashville pillars who continue to take risks, though, and the urge to reward Willie on the eve of his 90th birthday might be too poetic to miss.
Who should Win: Another no-lose category — even a less showy choice like McBryde's scrappy, heavily collaborative Lindeville would feel like a sweet left-field win.
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