European elections polls latest: Brexit Party forecast to win majority of UK seats

The latest polling for the European Parliament elections shows that Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is likely to gain the most seats in the UK, as establishment parties are forecast to lose their majority across the European Union.

The vote takes place in the UK on Thursday 23 May, with the Europe-wide results expected on the evening of Sunday 26 May.

These are expected to see establishment parties across the continent suffer, both at the hands of the populist-Right as well as resurgent liberal parties.

The result is likely to be a more fragmented European Parliament, with the centre-Right EPP and centre-Left S&D forecast to lose their combined majority.

UK polls show the Brexit Party winning the most seats

The latest polling average puts Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party ahead of the two major parties, on 30 per cent compared to Labour’s 21 per cent and the Tories’ 12 per cent.

This would mark the Conservatives falling to their lowest vote share in a national election since they formed in 1834.

The Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK - all backers of a second referendum - collectively have support of 28 per cent of the public, against no-dealers Ukip and the Brexit Party's collective 34 per cent.

Revoking Article 50 and a no-deal Brexit - the two extremes of the Europe debate - are currently the most popular outcomes among the public, and parties are fighting to claim this political ground ahead of the vote.

The lack of a Remain alliance - with the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK all competing and splitting the pro-European vote - makes their job of converting votes into seats even harder.

An analysis of the latest regional polling shows that the Greens, Lib Dems and Change UK would stand to win an additional 10 MEPs at the EU elections if they stood as a single anti-Brexit entity, giving them a total of 18 seats.

Europe-wide polls show establishment parties losing their majority

At a continent level, the European Union's established centre-Left and centre-Right blocs are likely to lose their combined majority in the elections.

The latest Politico Poll of Polls analysis indicates that the two large pan-European blocs, which are comprised of a host of allied parties from each EU country, will lose seats under a tide of both populist and liberal support.

While the centre-Right European Peoples' Party (EPP) and centre-Left Socialists & Democrats (S&D) are likely to remain the largest parliamentary groups, experts warn that their current position of dominance is now "threatened". Current forecasts indicate they will lose 98 seats between them.

The loss of their combined majority is thanks to the rise of the liberal Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) and eurosceptic Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF). These parties are currently forecast to pick up an extra 37 and 34 seats, respectively.

The latter of these blocs, the populist-Right ENF, is likely to morph into a new group called European Alliance of People and Nations after the election, under Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.

The ALDE and ENF are forecast to make the largest gains in the election, leading experts to warn that the new Parliament could be more fractious with majorities harder to come by.

The current European Parliament is comprised of 751 seats, of which 73 are for UK MEPs. This will remain the composition of the Parliament for as long as the UK remains a member of the EU.

As soon as the UK departs, the composition will have to be reconfigured, becoming a 705-seat Parliament, with 27 UK seats being re-allocated to other EU nations in order to balance the Parliament.

Spain and France who get five more seats, Italy and the Netherlands get three, Ireland two and a host of other states - Germany, Denmark, Estonia, Croatia, Sweden, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Poland - receiving one more seat.