Fewer than 200 asylum seekers will be deported to Rwanda under existing rules, data analysis shows

Fewer than 200 asylum seekers would be deported to Rwanda under existing immigration rules, a new analysis shows, casting doubt over Boris Johnson’s claim that “tens of thousands” would be removed under the plan.

The Refugee Council says 172 people could have been sent to the East African country last year had the deal been in place then, and estimates that this year the number is not likely to be much higher.

The multi-million pound deal means people who are deemed to be “inadmissible” under UK asylum rules could be flown to Rwanda for processing. The rules, introduced in January 2021, mean they travelled through a safe country, such as France, to reach Britain.

The analysis of Home Office figures shows that just 2 per cent of asylum seekers considered under the rules last year were ultimately found to be inadmissible, amounting to around 172 individuals out of 8,593.

The figures raise questions over the prime minister’s claim earlier this month that the deal is “uncapped” and that Rwanda would “have the capacity to resettle tens of thousands of people in the years ahead”.

The Refugee Council has also calculated that more than 19,200 people fleeing war and persecution – including those escaping Ukraine - could be convicted and imprisoned each year under the government’s asylum plans, at an annual cost of around £835m to the public purse.

The majority of people who make the dangerous Channel crossing would be eligible for asylum in the UK, with most of them having fled countries such as Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and Eritrea where human rights abuses are rife and therefore their protection needs are clear.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said: “Punishing people, treating them like criminals and human cargo to be expelled to Rwanda is not only inhumane, cruel and nasty but it will do nothing to address the reasons why people take perilous journeys to find safety in the UK.

“It will do little to deter them from coming to this country, but only lead to more human suffering and chaos – at a huge potential expense of nearly a billion pounds each year.

He accused the government of destroying a key principle of refugee protection – that refugees should not be discriminated against based on how they travel.

“If the government is serious about tackling people smugglers and operating an orderly asylum system, we need to see well thought-out, long-term solutions that address why people are forced from their homes and provides them with safe routes to the UK,” Mr Solomon added.

A Home Office spokesperson said the Rwanda deal would “overhaul our broken asylum system, which is currently costing the UK taxpayer £1.5bn a year – the highest amount in two decades”.

They said they did not recognise the figures derived from the data analysis but did not explain how the figures were wrong.