Oscars 2022: Who will win, should win, and who should have got a look in

This is the most unpredictable Oscars in years. Potentially because no one has seen most of the films nominated. “What’s a CODA”, you ask? Well, probably our newest Best Picture winner. But that’s the weird new world of cinema, where the best films of the year – at least in the eyes of the Academy – are ones that mostly bombed at the multiplex or were inescapable for a few days on Netflix or Apple TV before vanishing from cultural memory.

In general, though, this year’s Oscars aren’t very objectionable. While the surge in support for the very treacly CODA – about the only hearing member of a deaf family – is bizarre, likewise the love for The Eyes of Tammy Faye’s Jessica Chastain and Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast, there’s a lot to celebrate here.

There’s first-time nominee – but not in our hearts – Kirsten Dunst; breakthrough performances from Ariana DeBose and Kodi Smit-McPhee being recognised; and consistently brilliant character actors such as Aunjanue Ellis and Jesse Plemons finally receiving Oscar kudos.

True to form, though, the films and performances most overlooked are also the prickliest of the year: Lady Gaga being broad and provocative in House of Gucci, the psychological messiness of Simon Rex in Red Rocket, the backwards-strutting, camp-as-Christmas parasitic twin of James Wan’s Malignant. Forget Amy Schumer; why isn’t that thing hosting the ceremony this year?

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Ahead of the Oscars on Sunday 27 March – find out how to watch them live here – we’ve cast an eye over the major categories and highlighted who will win, who should win, and who should have got a look in.

Best Picture

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Will win CODA

Should win The Power of the Dog

Shoulda got a look in Spencer

CODA looks set to take this, but where is the Spencer love? Perhaps it was just too weird: a paranoid country-house horror movie about one of the most famous women in the world. God, the Academy can be boring.

Best Director

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Will win Jane Campion

Should win Jane Campion

Shoulda got a look in Lin-Manuel Miranda, Tick, Tick… Boom!

For capturing the majesty of the American West – and on location in New Zealand! – and delivering a twisty, elegant spin on the psychological thriller with The Power of the Dog, Jane Campion has to win this category. But in terms of directors that really should be here, dare I say Lin-Manuel Miranda? Everyone’s favourite punching bag, he did dizzying work behind the camera for Tick, Tick… Boom! He certainly warrants a spot more than Kenneth Branagh, at least.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Will win Will Smith

Should win Andrew Garfield

Shoulda got a look in Simon Rex, Red Rocket

Few will have any objections to a win for category fave Will Smith, but Andrew Garfield is the strongest here. In Tick, Tick… Boom! he channels mania, restlessness and heartache, often at the very same time. Then there’s Red Rocket’s Simon Rex, who was never going to get an Oscar nod for playing a sociopathic porn star preying on a teenage girl, but his absence still stings – he arguably gives the performance of the year.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Will win Jessica Chastain

Should win Kristen Stewart

Shoulda got a look in Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

A stacked category with no clear favourite seems to have become Jessica Chastain’s to take in recent weeks – peculiar since she’s actively terrible in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Missing here are cinema’s finest joggers Alana Haim (of Licorice Pizza) and Renate Reinsve (of The Worst Person in the World), both of whom played directionless twentysomething women prone to running through the streets. Lady Gaga’s absence for House of Gucci is also an oversight, whatever you think of the polarising film itself.

Best Supporting Actor

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Will win Troy Kotsur

Should win Kodi Smit-McPhee

Shoulda got a look in Mike Faist, West Side Story

Troy Kotsur is a sure thing in this category, the Academy’s love of CODA one of the bigger surprises of this awards season. It’s unfortunately also shut out Kodi Smit-McPhee, who does subtle, brilliant work as a sensitive, deceptively cunning teenager in The Power of the Dog. Once again this category tends to favour grizzled, older character actors rather than anyone under the age of 35. On that note, it’s unfortunate that Mike Faist isn’t here – he’s the best thing in West Side Story; a whirling dervish of charisma and grit.

Best Supporting Actress

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Will win Ariana DeBose

Should win Kirsten Dunst

Shoulda got a look in Martha Plimpton, Mass

Even beyond the fact that she’s long overdue a win – let alone a first nomination – Kirsten Dunst is astounding in The Power of the Dog, and really should have walked away with this category. As for those overlooked here, what an embarrassment of riches! Plimpton and Dowd are multi-faceted vessels of grief in Fran Kranz’s brutal four-hander Mass, Dagmara Dominczyk is subtly terrifying in The Lost Daughter, while Kathryn Hunter – playing all three weird sisters at once – was the sole bit of ingenuity in the otherwise conventional The Tragedy of Macbeth. Then there’s Ruth Negga, who brought heartbreaking pathos to Rebecca Hall’s Passing.

Best Original Screenplay

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Worst Person in the World

Will win Don’t Look Up

Should win The Worst Person in the World

Shoulda got a look in Annette

The Oscars love a bit of Adam McKay, even when he writes something abominable, so expect to see him win for Don’t Look Up here. The funny, wise The Worst Person in the World deserves the prize a lot more, though. When it comes to movies missing from this category: was any film from last year as ballsy and bold as the puppet-baby musical Annette? Once again, I ask, why are the Oscars so boring?

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA

Drive My Car

Dune

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

Will win CODA

Should win The Lost Daughter

Shoulda got a look in The Last Duel

CODA will most probably take this, but for the sheer difficulty of translating a first-person novel into a third-person psychodrama, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s work on The Lost Daughter should truly be the victor. It would have also been nice to see The Last Duel – and screenwriters Nicole Holofcener, Ben Affleck and Matt Damon – recognised here for their sterling triptych of a screenplay. Then again, about five people saw that movie, so it had no real chance.