Covid 'not going away soon', MPs told, amid warning of 'significant' new surge

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There is "nothing to suggest the virus is going away any time soon", the Government's most senior scientific advisers have said, as they revealed "all the modelling" suggests a significant surge will occur later this year.

Sage modelling has suggested that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions, at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths could occur.

Professor Chris Whitty , the chief medical officer, told the science and technology committee that despite the vaccine rollout he expected a "significant" and "substantial" surge.

He added: "All the modelling suggests at some point we will get a surge in the virus. We hope it doesn't happen soon - it might happen later in the summer if we open up gradually, or if there is a seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter.

"But all the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge, and when it happens it will find the people who have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked. Some of them will be hospitalised and sadly some of them will die."

Sir Patrick Vallance added: "There is nothing to suggest the virus is going away any time soon. It may be a winter virus that comes back over winters, with an increase in infection rates."

​​Follow the latest updates below.

04:05 PM

And that's it for another day...

Boris Johnson could face growing questions over his refusal to speed up the roadmap, after Nicola Sturgeon gazumped him today, by allowing four Scots from two households to meet outdoors from Friday.

In England, of course, socialising is restricted to just two people.

But while terse conversations are likely to take place behind closed doors, the Prime Minister can use the grave warnings issued by his two chiefs today to try and keep the public onside.

With their characteristic honesty (bordering on pessimism), Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance made it clear the roadmap should not go any faster, may in fact go slower, and either way, a "significant" new surge is pretty much guaranteed.

Despite this, a whopping 62 per cent of readers, out of more than 1,500 responses, say there is zero chance of another lockdown. A fifth of you believe it is a dead cert, while only 17 per cent said it was 50-50.

It's been a busy day with Theresa May tearing a strip of Rishi Sunak's 'super deductor' policy, Ed Miliband questioning the Chancellor's levelling up funds and more questions about nurses' pay.

Read on for the rest of the day's news below.

03:53 PM

UK ambassador to China defends article amid Beijing's criticism

The UK's ambassador to China says she stands by an article she wrote, after being summoned by Beijing's foreign minister to receive a dressing down.

Caroline Wilson's article in Chinese was posted on the official WeChat account of the British embassy in Beijing last week, amid already tense relations between Britain and China on issues such as Hong Kong, Xinjiang and the media.

In it, she sought to explain why foreign media criticism of the Chinese government did not mean the journalists responsible did not like China but were in fact acting in "good faith" and playing an active role in monitoring government action.

But China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was "inappropriate".

"The whole article is full of 'lecturer' arrogance and ideological prejudice ... and is seriously inconsistent with the status of diplomats."

03:48 PM

Charles Michel accuses UK of 'outright ban' on Covid vaccines

EU chief Charles Michel has accused the UK of imposing an "outright ban" on Covid vaccines, in a bizarre attack on the strategies of many countries.

Mr Michel said he was "shocked when I hear the accusations of 'vaccine nationalism' against the EU".

"The EU has never stopped exporting," he said, whereas "the United Kingdom and the United States have imposed an outright ban on the export of vaccines or vaccine components produced on their territory".

He also took the opportunity to attack China and Russia - "both regimes with less desirable values than ours" for having "organised highly limited but widely publicised operations to supply vaccines to others".

The EU, in contrast, was "actively promoting its values" through the Covax initiative.

Officials believe Russia and China are trying to expand global influence by rushing to deliver their vaccines before they were rigorously vetted by regulators. However there were no such qualms expressed during the ill-fated trip to Moscow by Josep Borrell last month.

"Without Europe, it would not have been possible to develop and produce several types of vaccines in less than one year," he said.

03:36 PM

Sir Keir Starmer challenges Boris Johnson over 'halved' NHS pay rise

Sir Keir Starmer has seized on comments made by Sir Simon Stevens today (see 11:29am), suggesting he had expected frontline workers to get more than double the pay rise that the Government has been offered.

The Labour leader tweeted: "Today the head of the NHS confirmed that health workers were to be offered a 2.1 per cent pay rise before the pandemic.

"So why has Boris Johnson halved his offer after a year where NHS workers have put their lives on the line for our country?"

03:29 PM

Ed Miliband calls on Government to publish levelling up funds criteria

Former Labour leader Ed Miliband has raised questions around the allocation of levelling up funds to Rishi Sunak's constituency ahead of other areas.

The shadow business secretary told MPs: "We are the most regionally unequal country of any major developed economy and the most centralised. The levelling-up fund is a centralised pot of money to be determined by ministers.

"We're starting to discover where the money is actually going. Salford is the 18th most deprived area in the country, but not placed in the category of most need, category one, but in category two. Barnsley is the 38th most deprived area and is also in category two.

"Richmond is 256th out of 317th for deprivation, it happens to cover the Chancellor's constituency, so found its way into category one. The Government has said it is based on objective criteria, so what are they?"

He added: "If it's all above board, why haven't they published the criteria?"

03:10 PM

Theresa May savages Budget policy as 'investing in chief executives' jacuzzis'

Former prime minister Theresa May has attacked the Government over its "super-deductor" policy announced at last week's Budget, saying the UK needs "investment in innovation, not in chief executives' jacuzzis."

Mrs May, who has become a regular thorn in Boris Johnson's side, told the Commons that ministers should be focusing on how to drive up domestic R&D.

She told Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng: "Now we are going to see another consultation on R&D tax credits, I think that's the third consultation in three years. I have to say stop consulting, just get on and do something - extend the definition of R&D expenditure, increase the rate, but act - what we need is investment in innovation, not in chief executive's jacuzzis."

Mrs May said that the country needs "a long-term strategy", adding: "Make changes where necessary, not just for the sake of making a change." She also called on him not to "abandon" the modern industrial strategy, urging Mr Kwarteng to "build on it, for the sake of all our futures."

03:02 PM

Rangers 'did not do nearly enough' to stop fans' Covid breach, Nicola Sturgeon says

Nicola Sturgeon has said Rangers "did not do nearly enough" to help avoid fans celebrating after their league victory - the first in 10 years.

The First Minister told Holyrood told MSPs she shared the "anger" over the "disgraceful" behaviour and that she would be speaking with Police Scotland's Chief Constable Iain Livingstone about next steps.

She said: "We will also be having further discussions this week with the football authorities and with certain football clubs who, in my view, need to show much more leadership.

"Let me be clear, in making these comments, I don't care about the colour of the shirts. I said some harsh things about Celtic's decisions at the start of this year. And as far as I am concerned in this case, Rangers Football Club did not do nearly enough to help avoid this situation arising at the weekend.

"The fact is that elite sport is being allowed to continue just now so that fans - deprived of so much else in life right now - can continue to watch and support their teams."

02:49 PM

EU reaction to grace period extension 'hysterical', says Arlene Foster

Arlene Foster has branded the European Commission's reaction to the UK move to delay full implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol as "hysterical".

Speaking after a visit to a vaccine centre at the Ulster Hospital, Stormont's First Minister said the "small moves" made to extend the grace periods had been deemed legal by the attorney general "and therefore any legal action that will be taken I'm sure will be fought."

She added: "I hope that doesn't end up being the case, I think there has been a bit of a hysterical reaction actually to some very small moves."

While reiterating her belief that the protocol should be scrapped, Ms Foster said she did not detect a willingness from the Commission to engage with the UK Government.

"I don't see any evidence of any negotiations ongoing at this present moment in time, I see a lot of megaphone diplomacy actually," she said. "It would be really good if there were some listening ears for a change."

02:43 PM

Communal worship to restart this month, says Nicola Sturgeon

Communal worship in Scotland will restart from March 26, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

The First Minister told MSPs the limit for services will rise from 20 people to 50 people.

She said: "This is in time for Passover, Easter, Ramadan and Vaisakhi.

"In addition, the limit on attendance at communal services will be increased from 20, which was the limit in place before lockdown, to 50 - assuming of course that a place of worship is spacious enough to accommodate that many people with two-metre physical distancing.

"I know that the restrictions on communal worship have been difficult for many people, despite the exceptional efforts made by faith groups to reach out to their communities.

"This change is a proportionate step, which we believe can be achieved relatively safely, and which will hopefully enable more people to draw strength, comfort and inspiration from acts of collective worship."

02:39 PM

More socialising allowed in Scotland from Friday, Nicola Sturgeon says

People in Scotland from two different households will be able to meet in groups of four outdoors from Friday, the First Minister has said.

Nicola Sturgeon says meeting will possible anywhere, including gardens, and people should only go indoors for "essential" reasons such as going into the backgarden or to use the toilet. Outdoor non-contact sports and group activities will also be allowed, she says.

She has "deliberately prioritised changes which might benefit our well-being and quality of life".

Noting a focus on "restoring a bit more normality for children", Ms Sturgeon also announced that "four friends from four different families" could meet if they are under 18.

02:31 PM

Scotland to begin vaccinating over-50s

Scotland will begin vaccinating people aged 50 and over, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

That means "no vaccine will go to waste" and that the country can meet its target of offering a vaccine to all priority groups by mid-April, she says.

There is "strong evidence" that it has significantly reduced deaths and severe illness among the most vulnerable, given "increasing confidence" that restrictions can be eased while keeping the R-rate below one.

"The prospects are now very encouraging indeed," she says. But "timing remains essential", which is why "caution is still essential".

The R-rate is "probably not very far below one", she adds.

02:26 PM

Scotland to mark Covid anniversaries with national silence, says Nicola Sturgeon

Nicola Sturgeon planning to mark March 23 with a national silence, she has told Holyrood, alongside plans for a longer-term way to commemorate those who have died during the pandemic.

This Saturday will be the anniversary of the first confirmed Covid death in Scotland, ahead of the anniversary of the start of lockdown.

The First Minister told MSPs a further 19 deaths had been registered in the last 24 hours.

Work is underway as to how best to mark the days, including community-led commemorative activities, as well as something within Scottish Parliament, she said.

Details will be set out over the next fortnight.

02:17 PM

Have your say: Do future lockdowns beckon?

Boris Johnson has tempered his boosterism as we begin lifting lockdown - but despite this, the Prime Minister has stressed his desire for the roadmap to be "irreversible".

But even this seems to be under threat after Professor Chris Whitty warned MPs of a "significant" surge that "all the modelling" is predicting will come later in the year, claiming at least another 30,000 lives.

The chief medical officer said the only question was whether it would be in the summer or autumn/winter, and he put his money on the latter.

This doesn't necessarily mean there will be another lockdown - but does it seem plausible? Have your say in the poll below.

02:12 PM

Former minister accuses Government of 'corruption' over Covid contracts

A former minister has accused the Government of "corruption" over the awarding of Covid-19 contracts.

During a debate about lack of transparency, Labour MP Chris Bryant told the Commons that health minister Ed Argar was "adorable", but that he was "not falling for that old trick" of blaming the need for speed.

He added: "I'm not taking any of this nonsense about they had to focus on [getting PPE delivered to health and social care] which meant that they couldn't deal with transparency. The truth is what they set up was a VIP track for some people to be able to get massive contracts and some people enriched themselves phenomenally during this pandemic.

"And many of them, surprise, surprise, happen to be Conservative party donors. It looks, I have to say, like corruption and the only way that the Government can wipe that slate clean is if it comes clean with all the contracts because otherwise it just looks like a cover-up."

Mr Argar responded: "I'll take his first comment, I think, as a compliment from a colleague I know well. But I have to say, having said that, I do not recognise his characterisation of what happened.

"He is right that there were challenges faced, not just in frontline and NHS situations, but in social care, he's absolutely right to highlight that as I alluded to earlier."

02:01 PM

Further 164 Covid deaths registered in England

A further 164 people who tested positive for coronavirus have died in hospital in England, bringing the total number of confirmed deaths reported in hospitals to 84,631, NHS England said on Tuesday.

Patients were aged between 11 and 100.

All except eight, aged between 49 and 87, had known underlying health conditions.

The deaths were between December 20 and March 8, with the majority being on or after March 4.

The worst-affected region was the North East & Yorkshire, with 37 deaths registered, followed by North West, with 35 and Midlands, with 29.

There were 20 deaths registered in the East of England, 15 in both London and the South West and 13 in the South East.

01:50 PM

Buckingham Palace right to remain silent, says Alastair Campbell

Tony Blair's ex-spin doctor has suggested Buckingham Palace should maintain its silence in response to the interview with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.

Alastair Campbell, who advised the royal family on its response in the aftermath of Diana's death, told BBC Radio 4's World At One: "The situations are very, very different. The death of Diana was a huge event and following which they were all going to have to be involved in the funeral and in the response to what was happening in the country as a result of her death.

"Whereas this, I think, is a pretty extraordinary and a pretty explosive media frenzy, but that ultimately is what it is.

"So I'm not sure I would advise them to do anything much beyond what they are doing - which is not very much."

Addressing issues such as Harry's relationship with his father or "some of the more explosive allegations" was best done privately, he said.

Mr Campbell said he had "no doubt" that there was a "racist element" to some of the press coverage of Meghan.

01:28 PM

Parents should allow children to wear face masks in classrooms, says minister

The schools minister has urged parents to allow their children to wear face coverings in secondary school classrooms amid reports of opposition.

David Johnston, Conservative MP for Wantage, said headteachers had told him that some parents are issuing "a notice of liability" about the Department for Education's (DfE) face mask guidance and parents have called on schools not to require that pupils wear face coverings.

Mr Johnston said: "When a headteacher decides that actually they do need them, based on the DfE guidance, they're getting quite challenging, some might say threatening, letters from certain parents who disagree with the stance ordering them to desist."

Nick Gibb told the education select committee: "I would say to parents you should allow your child to wear a face mask in the classroom because it protects the other children in the classroom, and also actually may well prevent your child from having to self isolate because somebody near them has tested positive for Covid."

01:22 PM

More than 33,000 Government laptops delivered this week

More than 33,000 additional laptops and tablets have been delivered or dispatched by the Government to help children with remote learning over the past week.

New figures from the Department for Education suggest 688,317 devices have been sent to councils, academy trusts, schools and colleges across England since the lockdown began on January 4 - which is an extra 33,544 devices compared to last week.

A total of 1,250,738 laptops and tablets have been delivered or dispatched to support pupils to access remote education since the start of the pandemic.

01:16 PM

Government must publish 100 outstanding Covid contracts, says Labour

Labour frontbencher Rachel Reeves has called on the Government to publish 100 outstanding contracts by the end of the week.

The shadow Cabinet Office minister said that contracts were handed out to "friends and donors" of the Conservative Party without any transparency.

Highlighting the recent High Court judgement, she said: "A judge confirmed through a court order last Friday that 100 contracts are still to be published.

"So will (health minister Edward Argar) now take this opportunity to apologise for that statement and to put the record straight? And will the Government now finally agree to publish all 100 outstanding contracts by the end of this week?"

But the minister stressed that "the details for all of these contracts under scrutiny, I'm advised, were published."

12:57 PM

Lobby latest: No 10 maintains silence after PM watches Harry and Meghan interview

Boris Johnson has watched Prince Harry and Meghan's interview - but still has no comment on the racism row, Downing Street said.

No 10 declined to distance the Government from comments from minister Lord Goldsmith, who accused Harry of "blowing up his family".

Asked if Mr Johnson watched the interview aired in the UK on Monday night, the Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "He did but you have the PM's words from the press conference last night and I won't be adding any further to what he said."

The spokesman also declined to comment on the White House's response to the interview, whether it may affect the UK's reputation around the world, or whether the nation has a duty of care to the monarchy.

The spokesman declined to comment further when asked about Lord Goldsmith's remarks at least five times.

When asked if the minister was speaking for the Government, the spokesman said: "All I can do is echo what the Prime Minister said in the press conference last night. I won't be adding anything further to his comments."

12:52 PM

Lobby latest: Still no jab for Boris Johnson

Downing Street has said Boris Johnson is yet to be invited for a coronavirus vaccine.

Yesterday Mark Drakeford revealed he had received his first dose - making the 66-year-old the first leader of one of the four nations to do so.

However the 56-year-old Prime Minister has not yet had the call.

His official spokesman said: "It remains the case I've not heard that he's been invited to have one yet but when he does he will more than happily come forward and take the vaccine."

12:47 PM

Lobby latest: Lockdown will be eased 'gradually' to avoid new surge, says No 10

Downing Street has stressed the lockdown will be eased "gradually" after Professor Chris Whitty warned there will be a coronavirus "surge" as restrictions are relaxed.

The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "We are gradually in a very cautious way moving through the road map so that we have the time between steps to look at the impact lifting restrictions has had.

"The Prime Minister has been clear it is a cautious road map but he wants it to be irreversible."

12:43 PM

NHS workers 'will receive a pay rise', says Rishi Sunak

NHS workers will receive a pay rise next year, Rishi Sunak has insisted, amid claims frontline workers will receive a real-term cut.

The Government is planning to give NHS workers a one per cent pay rise. However, the Office for Budget Responsibility believes that inflation will rise to 1.5 per cent in 2021 – meaning they will be less well-off.

Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds told the Commons: "We need a straight answer now from the Chancellor, why do the Conservatives believe our nurses are worth less now than they were before the pandemic?"

Mr Sunak replied: "With regard to public sector pay, we set out a policy in November, but given the situation we were taking a more targeted approach to public sector pay - to balance fairness and to protect as many jobs as possible.

"She will know that the NHS was exempted from that policy and NHS workers will receive a pay rise next year."

Watch: Supercomputer shows effectiveness of double masking

12:31 PM

Rishi Sunak defends himself from claims he was 'responsible for second wave'

The Chancellor has defended his hawkish position towards the lockdown, telling MPs "at all steps in this crisis we have indeed taken the advice of our scientific advisers".

Shadow junior Treasury minister Bridget Phillipson quoted a Times article, which reported a Sage adviser as saying "I thought the Chancellor was in charge. He was the main person who was responsible for the second wave".

The same article estimates that between 6,700 and 13,400 people died because the Prime Minister ignored calls to impose a circuit breaker in September.

But Rishi Sunak told Ms Phillipson to "be a little bit careful about what she reads in the newspaper".

He added: "At all steps in this crisis we have indeed taken the advice of our scientific advisers.

"If we go back to September which I think she's referring to, at that time as she knows from the Sage minutes herself which are published rather than unsourced quotes in newspapers, that the evidence was finely balanced and there were many things for ministers to consider and the consideration at that point was that the tiered system was working and deserved to be given a chance."

12:12 PM

Have your say: Do future lockdowns beckon?

Boris Johnson has tempered his boosterism as we begin lifting lockdown - but despite this, the Prime Minister has stressed his desire for the roadmap to be "irreversible".

But even this seems to be under threat after Professor Chris Whitty warned MPs of a "significant" surge that "all the modelling" is predicting will come later in the year, claiming at least another 30,000 lives.

The chief medical officer said the only question was whether it would be in the summer or autumn/winter, and he put his money on the latter.

This doesn't necessarily mean there will be another lockdown - but does it seem plausible? Have your say in the poll below.

11:42 AM

Two chiefs bemoan 'misrepresentation of messaging to public'

The Government's two chief advisers have said the most frustrating part of the relationship between themselves and ministers has been when messages are twisted as they are communicated.

Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, told MPs he was frustrated "when what we think have we said quite clearly is misrepresented to the public".

He added: "Sometimes it has been my fault - I've just not been communicating clearly enough, but sometimes we have situations where people are just misrepresenting what's been said."

He stressed he was "not trying to point fingers of blame" and declined to give examples "because that would be unfair".

Sir Patrick Valance agreed with his colleague, adding another complaint was the expectation that scientific advice would be perfect.

"We have, at every stage, dealt with imperfect information - there is uncertainty - so we are trying to express what we know and what we don't know. That will continue to be the case.. but it doesn't meant science isn't valuable."

11:29 AM

NHS staff had expected 2.1pc pay rise, says Sir Simon Stevens

NHS staff in England were expecting to receive a higher pay rise than the one per cent proposed by the Government, the head of the health service has confirmed.

Sir Simon Stevens, chief executive of the NHS in England, confirmed that plans set out previously had budgeted for NHS pay to increase by 2.1 per cent this year.

Giving evidence to the House of Commons Health and Social Care Committee, Sir Simon said: "You would expect the head of the health service to want to see properly rewarded NHS staff, particularly given everything that the service has been through - they have been through - over the course of the last year.

He added: "Ultimately, of course, government gets to decide whether to accept those [pay review] recommendations but we are in the review process where the review body needs to be able to do its work without fear or favour and then put forward that recommendation and its justification for so doing."

Labour has accused the Government of "breaking their promise" to health workers. This morning Robert Buckland, the Justice Secretary, said he hoped it would be an "appropriate" amount.

11:17 AM

'Zero Covid' policy not possible, says Sir Patrick Vallance

Sir Patrick Vallance has said he does not believe a "zero Covid" policy is possible, as he echoed Professor Chris Whitty's warning about a winter surge.

Speaking to the science and technology committee, he said: "There is nothing to suggest the virus is going away any time soon. It may be a winter virus that comes back over winters with an increase in infection rates.

"I don't think zero Covid is possible and it is going to be very difficult for any country to maintain a complete absence of this long-term because at some point they have to reopen borders."

He told MPs that outdoors socialising was "absolutely" better than indoors, although stressed it was "not zero risk".

11:13 AM

New Zealand will see an 'influx of infections' when country reopens, says chief scientific adviser

Countries have adopted a more restrictive quarantine system will "see an influx of infections" when they eventually open up, Sir Patrick Vallance has said.

The chief scientific adviser told MPs of the science and technology committee that a “very rigorous border system” like New Zealand’s has been effective, but adds “at some point they are going to have to open up their border, and at that point they will see an influx of infections”.

It is on the more "extreme" end of what countries have done, he adds. Quarantine is not sufficient to keep variants out, because they can emerge domestically.

"I would expect more variants to emerge.. and wherever we are seeing these changes, they look the same. The virus is doing the same things in different ways, acquiring certain mutations it wasn't to acquired - largely for purposes of mutations, as far as we can tell. That is the reason for keeping rates down as low as possible," he adds.

10:52 AM

No 'overall' difference in staggered or single school return, says CSA

Reopening schools en masse will not have a different "overall" effect than staggered reopening, Sir Patrick Vallance has told MPs.

Asked whether Sage had advised the latter approach rather than the one taken in England - which is at odds with other nations in the UK - the chief scientific adviser told the science and technology committee: " You end up in the same place, you just take a different route to get there, but you don't overall have a different impact."

Initially there would be a "bigger effect, no doubt about that" but schools were generally "a reflection of community spread, rather than a driver".

Asked for a yes or no answer as to what Sage had advised, Sir Patrick said the advisers had "simply laid out" a range of options for ministers.

Professor Chris Whitty stressed the impact keeping schools closed would have on deprived children, both in terms of their life chances and longer-term health.

"It is either a problem now... or it is a staggered problem, but it is still the same problem."

10:36 AM

'History is not full of leaders wishing they had lifted measures faster', says Chris Whitty

Professor Chris Whitty has warned against any speeding up of the roadmap, despite falling cases and a better-than-expected vaccine rollout.

The chief medical officer told Greg Clark's science and technology committee that the five-week gap was "the minimum you could talk about".

He explained: "The dates are set buy when you can measure the data. my view is you should take the dates as fixed. the question about what is in the dates, there is some question about what ministers could look at.

"But the history of this is not full of countries and leaders wishing they had done more faster - it is full of leaders who wished they had acted quicker and been more careful as they take things off. That is the history everywhere in the world, that is not specific to the UK."

In April, and May there were "a very substantial block of things with very high risk", he added.

10:25 AM

Prof Chris Whitty: It is easy to forget how quickly things can go bad

There is a "fundamental reason" for the five-week gap in every stage of Boris Johnson's roadmap, Prof Chris Whitty has said.

As well as the lag in cases and hospitalisations emerging, he revealed that ministers wanted to give the public a week's notice before taking each step.

And each step was "quite a big step", he added. "Step ne is already quite a big step, step two... is a very, very long list of things. Again, a very significant step."

The last step "is probably the smallest, in one sense, step", but authorities "still want confidence" before taking it.

He pointed to rates rising again in Europe, saying "it is very easy to forget quite how quickly things can go bad".

10:20 AM

'Significant' surge likely later in the year, says Chris Whitty

The surge that modelling forecasts later this year will result in "significant numbers" becoming ill with coronavirus again, the chief medical officer has said.

Professor Chris Whitty has told MPs that lifting lockdown "steadily" will help to flatten the curve, creating "a much lower and shallower peak".

"There will be a surge with significant numbers but much fewer deaths," he said.

Opening slowly would buy the country time, he noted, and it was "in my view, not in the models, some degree of seasonality", which meant the surge was likely later on in the year, when more people would be protected by the vaccine.

10:09 AM

Speed of lifting lockdown will have 'profound difference' to number of deaths, says Prof Whitty

The speed of opening will have a "profound difference" on the number of Covid deaths, Professor Chris Whitty has said, as he warned that lifting lockdown too fast would see "a lot more people die - a lot more people die".

The chief medical officer told MPs of the science and technology committee: "The modelling demonstrates the really profound difference between opening up too quickly, which leads to very large numbers of deaths, and opening up more slowly, in a steady way.

"This doesn't lead to no deaths," he added, stressing there was no scenario in which coronavirus "just goes away and there no further deaths - that is not realistic and to just pretend that to the British public would be completely wrong.

"It isn't the case, there will be further deaths, but many fewer deaths [if lockdown is lifted slowly]."

Vaccines were "doing a very large amount of heavy lifting", he added.

09:59 AM

Run annual 'germ games' to guard against 'era of pandemics', says Labour

The Government should conduct regular "germ games" to ensure the country is properly prepared for any future pandemics, Labour has said.

Shadow health secretary Jon Ashworth said the Government should run annual exercises to ensure we are better protected, noting experts have warned that we are in "an era of pandemics".

Appearing on Radio 4's Today programme ahead of a speech at the Institute for Public Policy Research, the Labour frontbencher said: "We have seen poor decision-making in response to this pandemic, and ministers should be thinking about this regularly.

"Experts are warning awe are in an era of pandemics - that is because of what we are doing to our environment, the biodiversity loss across the world caused by urbanisation, deforestation and climate change."

Mr Ashworth is calling for the Health Secretary to report annually to Parliament on the country's pandemic preparedness, with its plans subject to independent review by a new body along the lines of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

He will also call for public health teams to be properly resourced to deliver local community contact tracing and lead on local containment plans, and to bolster the life sciences industry to develop vaccines and therapeutics for the future.

09:58 AM

Professor Chris Whitty: 'All the modelling' suggests there will be another surge this year

"All the modelling" suggests there will be another surge this year, Professor Chris Whitty has warned.

The chief medical officer told the science and technology committee that despite the great success of the vaccine rollout , "because it is such as common virus,even if you have a relatively small proportion of people still remaining vulnerable, that still equates to a very large number" who could be at risk from Covid.

He added: "All the modelling suggests at some point we will get a surge in the virus. We hope it doesn't happen soon - it might happen later in the summer if we open up gradually, or if there is a seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter.

"But all the modelling suggest there is going to be a further surge, and when it happens it will find the people who have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked. Some of them will be hospitalised and sadly some of them will die."

He added: "That is just the reality of the situation."

09:50 AM

Schools reopening will 'change a number of things' that could push up transmission, says CSA

Schools reopening will "change a number of things" that could push case rates up again, Sir Patrick Vallance has told MPs.

The chief scientific adviser said when children return to the classroom "other things happen - parents meet, people who weren't perhaps going into work do so... it changes a number of things, all of which may have pressure on transmission."

Scientific advice is "really to have enough time to measure what has happened in response to each change," he said, noting that it might result in the next step being taken "either on the day that been announced or delaying if you have to".

He added: "No one can say how it will exactly how it will roll out over the next few months."

09:38 AM

Roadmap 'consistent' with Sage advice, says chief scientific adviser

Boris Johnson's roadmap is "consistent" with the principles behind Sage advice, Sir Patrick Vallance has said, although he has not commented on the specifics.

Speaking to the science select committee, the chief scientific adviser told chairman Greg Clark the pace was "broadly" in line with modelling,

"In terms of the principle of trying to go at a pace that is consistent with the vaccine rollout so you have coverage as you begin to release, this is broadly in line with what the modelling suggests is a way to do that is better than going fast," he added.

The same was true of the "sequencing of opening outdoor things before indoor things", he added.

09:12 AM

Anne Sacoolas must go through 'due process' over Harry Dunn case, says Justice Secretary

Justice Secretary Robert Buckland has dismissed an offer by the lawyer of Anne Sacoolas to undertake community service in the US for the death of 19-year-old Harry Dunn.

Amy Jeffress said that, since the charge pending in Britain against Sacoolas would not usually result in a prison sentence in the US, her client was not inclined to return to the UK to face trial.

However Mr Buckland said the priority should be to establish liability for the death of Mr Dunn, who was killed in a crash outside RAF Croughton in Northamptonshire in August 2019.

"Here in England and Wales we like to deal with things in their proper order. At the moment there is outstanding a very serious matter relating to alleged driving of this person and the death of a young man who has left behind a family who is naturally not just grief-stricken but who want justice," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"As the Foreign Secretary has said, the current situation is a denial of justice. Rather than talking about the sentence that would be appropriate, let's actually deal with the question of liability first.

"What we are trying to do is to actually go through due process and deal with the issue of criminal liability first."

09:05 AM

BBC warned to keep journalists' monologues impartial after Newsnight controversy

BBC monologues trying to “catch the audience’s attention” should not contain journalists’ personal views on political scandals, Ofcom has told the broadcaster in the wake of Emily Maitlis’s controversial Newsnight comments.

The presenter opened a programme in May 2020 by claiming Dominic Cummings caused “national disquiet” when he “broke the rules” by driving 260 miles to County Durham during lockdown.

Viewers submitted more than 24,000 complaints to the BBC over her remarks on the Prime Minister's adviser, and the broadcaster itself admitted they did not meet “standards of due impartiality”

Ofcom has now warned the corporation that while it seeks to “catch the audience’s attention” with monologues on political scandals, journalists must not “inadvertently give the impression of setting out personal opinions or views”.

08:53 AM

Chopper's Politics: Joanna Lumley says "Less talk, more action" to politicians

Joanna Lumley is fed up with politicians treading water. The actor and campaigner, and latest guest on The Telegraph's Chopper's Politics podcast, is currently hoping to persuade the government and the green industry to change how they build offshore wind farms in order to protect marine life. But, as with many of her previously causes, she's getting a lot of positive noises but not much change.

The Absolutely Fabulous star tells Christopher Hope: "What I hate most of all is people going 'something must be done'... Instead of 'I'll see to that, I'll take that on my shoulders and I'll do that.' So I think there's a particular kind of creeping wetness, lots and lots of titles, lots of gold epaulettes, as it were, and not much action. And like Elvis Presley, I like quite a lot of action."

Also on the podcast: Joanna tells us why she'd happy to have a vaccine passport, whether she could see theatres opening with half empty audiences, and plays a round of 'Patsy or Politician'.

08:48 AM

William Hague: Like the Tories in 1997, Labour is in a far worse position than it realises

"I a certain empathy with Sir Keir Starmer," writes William Hague in his column today.

Read the rest of his column here.

08:35 AM

China launches world's first vaccine passport

China has launched the world's first vaccine passport for citizens travelling abroad.

The digital certificate, which shows a user's vaccination status and virus test results, is available for Chinese citizens via a programme on Chinese social media platform WeChat that was launched on Monday.

The certificate is being rolled out "to help promote world economic recovery and facilitate cross-border travel", a foreign ministry spokesman said.

However, although the certificate is meant for travel in and out of China, it is currently only available for use by Chinese citizens and it is not yet mandatory.

08:16 AM

NHS staff will be given 'appropriate' pay rise, says Justice Secretary

Robert Buckland has said he hopes NHS staff will be given an "appropriate" pay rise, following the backlash against plans to give frontline workers a one per cent boost to their salary.

The Justice Secretary insisted this was just the "beginning of a process", stressing "the final recommendations have not yet been made".

But he added: "We have got to remember that in large other swathes of the public sector there will be a pay freeze save for the lowest paid. I don't think at the moment we are at the end of this process."

He told BBC Breakfast: "I think that we need to see what the recommendations are and I very much hope that the outcome - whilst it might not be an outcome in these difficult circumstances that will result in pay rises that everybody would want to see - that the work that has been done by NHS workers will be recognised in a way that is appropriate, bearing in mind the constraints we are all under.

"It is not for me to start to prejudge what the outcome of the negotiations is. I am simply pointing out that we are at the beginning of that process and we will have to see what the recommendations are."

08:10 AM

Hillary Clinton wades into Harry and Meghan row

Boris Johnson and his ministers might be hoping to avoid commenting on the allegations made by Prince Harry and Meghan during their Oprah Winfrey interview - but former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton has backed the Duchess of Sussex.

In a clip shown on BBC Breakfast, the one-time presidential candidate said: "Their cruelty in going after Meghan was just outrageous and the fact she did not get more support, that the reaction was, you know, let's just paper it over and pretend that it didn't happen or it will go away, just keep your head down, well, you know, this young woman was not about to keep her head down.

"You know, this is 2021."

08:05 AM

Closure of Nightingale hospitals 'important moment in national recovery', says Matt Hancock

Matt Hancock said the closure of the Nightingale hospitals was an "important moment in our national recovery".

The hospitals set up to cope with a spike in Covid-19 cases are to close from April, although the sites in London and Sunderland will stay open for vaccinations.

In a video posted to Twitter, the Health Secretary said the vaccine programme and lockdown restrictions had meant that there were now fewer than 10,000 people in hospitals across the UK, down from 40,000 seven weeks ago.

He said the hospitals were a "monument to this country's ability to get things done fast when it really matters" and played a "critical role" in the UK's response to coronavirus.

In January, the Health Service Journal (HSJ) reported figures published by minister for innovation Lord Bethell, which put the total cost of the temporary hospitals at around £532 million by the end of the 2022 financial year.

08:03 AM

Queen 'epitomises public duty', says minister, as he dodges questions about Meghan's interview

The Justice Secretary has praised the hard work and devotion to duty of the royal family as he declined to comment on Oprah Winfrey's interview with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex.

Robert Buckland told Sky News: "I don't think it is right for me as a member of the Government to start commenting about matters that are for the royal family. It is a long-established precedent."

He went on: "I support the work of the Queen and the Royal Family. Their devotion to public duty is well-known. The hard work that they put in every year, even during the Covid crisis, is well-chronicled.

"I think that the Queen epitomises public duty and public service and we all look up to her and admire her for that as we do other members of the royal family who work hard.

"That element of public duty is at the heart of what makes the monarchy work here in the United Kingdom."

08:00 AM

Palace must respond to Meghan's claims, says Labour

Labour have called for Buckingham Palace to respond to claims that a member of the Royal Family asked about the colour of Prince Harry and Meghan's unborn baby.

Jon Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, told Radio 4's Today programme: "The Palace needs to come forward with a response - I think people would expect them to make a response."

He added there was a broader point about the Duchess of Sussex's mental health revelations, saying: there is "so much stigma" attached to it. "We need to change debate and give people the support they deserve," he added.

Former shadow home secretary Diane Abbot said the claim "can only be described as racist" and was "the most extremely distasteful thing".

07:47 AM

Reveal if donors paid for No 10 decor, PM told

Boris Johnson is facing calls to reveal whether donors gave money to cover Downing Street refurbishments as Number 10 on Monday declined to rule out the possibility.

Allegra Stratton, Mr Johnson’s press secretary, denied Conservative Party funds had been used for any of the decor changes, which have made headlines in recent weeks.

However she did not rule out the possibility money had been sought from people who have given to the Conservative Party in the past.

Mr Johnson also declined to give clarity on the topic when asked at a press conference, saying: "All such inquiries will be answered with the normal declarations in the normal way.”

The Daily Mail reported on Saturday that Conservative Party funds met a large part of the refurbishment, which it reported could cost as much as £200,000.

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