Restrictions will be needed beyond lockdown and over Christmas to keep coronavirus at bay

England will need ongoing restrictions to normal life after lockdown, with measures likely to last into December and over the Christmas period in order to keep coronavirus under control, government scientists have warned.

In a new analysis released by the government’s Sage committee on Friday, scientists said the virus was now so widespread that without further controls lasting beyond the end of the current lockdown infections would rise again to where they were at the start of the month.

The bleak assessment, written the day before the new lockdown started, warned that the previous tiers of restrictions may not be enough on their own to bring the level of infections down and the whole country could end up in the highest category while the rate of infections will plateau rather than fall.

Prime minister Boris Johnson, under pressure from lockdown sceptic Tory MPs, committed to the lockdown ending on December 2.

If the scientists are right, their model suggests parts of the country will not be able to enjoy the freedoms granted earlier in the summer after the end of the first lockdown.

It’s not yet clear if ministers will grant a temporary easing of restrictions over Christmas to allow families to be together but last month Mr Johnson said the government would aim for a Christmas that was “as normal as possible.”

The latest coronavirus data showed there were 27,301 confirmed infections on Friday with 376 deaths reported in the last 24 hours. There are more than 12,000 patients in hospital with Covid-19.

The report by Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), dated 4 November, said the national lockdown was likely to reduce the rate of transmission, or the R number of the virus below 1. This means on average each infected person infects less than one other person causing the level of virus in the community to fall.

If the R value is above 1 then the epidemic continues to grow.

The report said: “If this is sustained until 2 December, the number of hospital admissions and deaths would be expected to fall until at least the second week of December. The longer-term outlook depends on both the nature of [restrictions] that are implemented in England after 2 December and policies over the festive period.

“If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before 5 November, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today.”

It added: “Initial analysis shows a clear effect from tier three interventions and much less from tiers one and two. It is not yet clear whether tier three measures alone are sufficient to reduce the reproduction number below one.

“If the highest tier does not reduce R substantially below one, the tier applied in a locality is based on the number of confirmed cases alone, and application does not take into account growth rate, this can result in all localities rising to the highest tier and plateauing at high prevalence [of Covid-19].”

Officials in Whitehall hope more mas testing of the virus in hot spot communities including rollout of tests that give results within an hour could help control the virus alongside tier three restrictions.

Latest estimates suggest the R-rate is falling across the UK but is still above 1 in England which means the virus is still spreading.

Sage estimates there are between 55,000 and 81,000 new infections every day in England. The R-rate could be below 1 in Wales and Scotland now.

While cases are falling among the young, health officials are concerned rates continue to grow among older age groups, who are more at risk of needing hospital treatment and death.

Cases in the UK are thought to be doubling between every 28 and 63 days.

The Office for National Statistics has estimated 654,000 people in England had Covid-19 between October 31 and November 6. An increase on previous weeks.

In a separate report for the Sage committee looking at the trajectories for Covid-19 over the next six months scientists said the level of virus in communities was likely to fall slowly.

It said: “The decline in infection rates seen after cases plateau will be slow, driven by gradual accumulation of population immunity - potentially leading to a long, relatively flat plateau of relatively high incidence unless measures are further intensified to drive incidence down.

“There will be very limited room to relax interventions, since the absolute level of population immunity reached will likely still be low. Relaxing measures will therefore easily cause R to exceed 1 once more.”

In a statement on Friday, Sage also said it was confident the epidemic has continued to grow in England over recent weeks.

It said: "Although there is some evidence that the rate of growth in some parts of the country may be slowing, levels of disease are very high in these areas; significant levels of healthcare demand and mortality will persist until R is reduced to and remains well below one for an extended period of time."

New Sage documents also said children aged 12-16 played a "significantly higher role" in introducing infection into households in the period after schools reopened their doors to students. Older children can spread the virus as easily as adults but this is less likely in younger children.

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