Why Tory talk is turning – again – to a change of leadership

Rumours that Boris Johnson has submitted a bid for a £30,000 replica of No 10’s famous front door are unlikely to surprise those who remember the former prime minister comparing himself to Cincinnatus, that resurgent Roman, in his resignation speech.

According to The Sun newspaper, the self-styled “World King” is so nostalgic about life in Downing Street that he is gunning to own the prop, being auctioned by Bonhams next month with a host of other items featured in hit Netflix series The Crown. His people claim the story is “rubbish”.

As Rishi Sunak faces another test of his premiership with the third reading of his controversial Rwanda Bill this week, he could arguably do without any blond-haired distractions.

The trouble for the Prime Minister, however, is that amid apocalyptic YouGov polling for the Tories – and his own nose-diving approval ratings – the question of leadership has once again reared its ugly head.

Isaac Levido, the Conservatives’ election campaign manager, told fractious Tory MPs to unite or die at Monday night’s meeting of the 1922 backbench committee.

The Australian political strategist insisted the Tories could still win the election, but only if they “get serious” and ends infighting.

“Let me be clear: divided parties fail,” he added, pointing out that the “don’t know” voters were still winnable. He is understood to have delivered a similar message to the Cabinet at a dinner on Sunday night.

Clearly furious at the involvement of Lord Frost, the former Brexit secretary, in the YouGov survey – published by The Telegraph on Sunday night and revealing that the Tories are heading for a 1997-style general election wipeout – Mr Levido suggested those who commissioned the polling “seem to be intent on undermining this Government and our party”.

Writing for The Telegraph, Lord Frost, a close ally of Mr Johnson, described the findings as “stunningly awful” for the party and said a combination of tactical voting and any decision by Nigel Farage to return to front-line politics could leave the Conservatives facing “an extinction event”.

Adding that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration”, he also called for income tax cuts, an end to the renewables tax on energy costs “and much more”.

Disgruntled Tories reacted by slamming his “brazen leadership bid” but, regardless of his personal ambitions for office, the intervention speaks to the malaise within the party at the current direction of travel.

It has hardly gone unnoticed in No 10 that as Mr Sunak’s approval rating has tanked to minus 30, according to the latest Opinium polling, some of those opposing him on Rwanda are rising up the ranks as potential successors.

Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, who is leading ConservativeHome’s leadership survey, is thought to be among those urging him to harden up the Rwanda legislation.

Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, third in the list behind Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the Commons, has also expressed her dissatisfaction with the proposed law as it currently stands, along with sixth-placed Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister.

While Boris-backer Andrea Jenkyns might be the only Conservative backbencher who admitted to submitting a letter of no confidence in Mr Sunak to Sir Graham Brady, the 1992 committee chairman, and this week doubled down on her call for a “new and true Conservative leader”, the future stewardship of the party is once again the talk of the Tory tearoom.

It comes after the Prime Minister’s authority was challenged on Monday night when two deputy chairmen of the Conservative party announced they would rebel over the Rwanda Bill.

Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith revealed that they had signed rebel amendments to toughen up the legislation, effectively challenging him to sack them from their party posts. Both MPs, former Johnson allies, resigned on Tuesday night.

As one Tory insider explained: “Rishi keeps on saying he is sticking to his plan – but it’s clear his plan isn’t working. Even if the party were to pivot now and come up with a radical plan to win back voters, there are doubts over whether he is the right person to communicate it.

“There are really only two politicians with enough cut through on the Right – Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage.

“One question MPs have been asking is what is Boris planning to do come election time. Is he going to campaign for the Conservatives? We need someone to be able to hammer home the message that a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour. Like him or loathe him, people take notice of what Boris says. I’m not sure the same can be said of Sunak.”

The YouGov poll has exposed the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament.

The polling also found that 42 per cent of people back small boat migrants being “removed from the country immediately”, with 15 per cent believing they should be removed with right of appeal.

The row over the Rwanda Bill isn’t just legislative – it is also political, with Right-wingers arguing that it must be strengthened to stave off the threat from Reform, whose leader, Richard Tice, is calling for the election to be a “referendum on immigration”.

Tellingly, on Tuesday Mr Johnson backed the Tory rebel amendments to toughen up the Bill, saying it must be “as legally robust as possible”.

As one Tory MP pointed out: “If the Government doesn’t toughen up the Bill, and it doesn’t end up stopping the boats, then Rishi is effectively handing the election on a plate to Keir Starmer via Reform.

“Colleagues are worried the Prime Minister can’t seem to see this as clearly as the rest of us. The public backs tougher measures. If Rwanda fails, then we all fail. If we unite behind a bad strategy then we die anyway. Better to go down fighting.”